Advancing comfortably as the winner of your preliminary group only to find yourself in a knockout bracket with teams like France, Belgium, Spain, and Germany. This is the fate of Portugal, and I am sure none of the “Navigators” are particularly pleased with this outcome. It is very likely that even Cristiano Ronaldo and company would have preferred to finish second in the group and enter the lower bracket, which is certainly much more manageable.
Qualifying for the knockout phase of the European Championship is a dream for everyone in Slovenia. I am almost certain that no one there is complaining about playing against Portugal in the Round of 16, and potentially facing either France or Belgium in the next match.
In the end, it all comes down to expectations and belief in your own capabilities.
But who will win this Round of 16 match?
According to bookmakers, as well as most sports betting fans and football enthusiasts in general, Portugal is the heavy favorite in this match. Furthermore, the Portuguese are among the favorites to win the title overall. Bet365 and bWin offer odds of 1.36 for their victory, which is extremely low. A draw is rated at 4.75, while a regular-time victory for Slovenia would bring 9 Euros for every bet placed.
Portugal is a strong favorite even in scenarios where Slovenia is given a one-goal advantage – the odds for Portugal in this case are 1.58 versus 2.35.
Bookmakers are on the fence about how many goals will be scored in this match. The odds for Over 2.5 goals are 2.02, while for Under 2.5 goals, it’s 1.88.
Matches from the Preliminary Groups
Slovenia managed to qualify for the Round of 16 by achieving three draws in their group against England, Denmark, and Serbia. It is important to note that in all three matches, the expected goals (xG) were always against the Slovenians. They created fewer chances than their opponents, but in all three cases, they managed to secure a draw.
The match against England was particularly telling, where Slovenia was almost entirely on the defense but managed to hold onto a goalless draw, which secured their qualification.
Will they manage the same against Portugal in a knockout match, which is certainly different from what Slovenia has played so far?
Portugal won their first two matches in the championship and after the second round, it was clear they would win their group. This led to changes in their lineup in the last match against Georgia, which may have contributed to their 0:2 loss.
In the first two matches, however, the Portuguese were unequivocal. A 2:1 victory against the Czech Republic with expected goals of 1.82 to 0.22. A 3:0 win against Turkey with expected goals of 1.73 to 0.7.
And this without Cristiano Ronaldo scoring a goal in either match. Despite this, Ronaldo is the player who created the most goal opportunities and threats in front of the opponent’s goal out of all the players in the championship.
These two facts – Ronaldo’s active play and the fact that goals for Portugal can come from any direction – are what make them favorites to win this match.
Even a victory by more than one goal difference wouldn’t surprise anyone following the championship.
Portugal’s coach, Roberto Martinez, employs an interesting tactic in the matches he has led so far in the European Championship. He always arranges his players to mirror the opponent’s tactics, relying on the immense individual quality at his disposal to prevail in key moments of the match.
The match against Slovenia will be no different, and it is a fact that Portugal has more quality in every position on the football field.
Another important point to remember for this match is Portugal’s first game in the championship. The match was against the Czech Republic and was 0:0 until the 62nd minute when Lukas Provod opened the score for the Czechs. The TV cameras immediately focused on Cristiano Ronaldo, capturing his gestures towards his teammates. Ronaldo was telling them, “Stay calm, play calmly. We can handle this and we know how to do it.” This is exactly what happened in the remaining minutes of the match. An own goal by Robin Hranac, a disallowed goal by Diogo Jota for 2:1, followed by a winning goal by Francisco Conceicao in the last minute of the match.
This shows that no matter how this match develops, it can go in a winning direction for the big favorites – the team of Portugal. Moreover, it is worth risking and betting on their victory with a difference of two or more goals.
The current odds for such an outcome are 2.43 at bet365, and at other betting houses, you can find it up to 2.55. The bet is risky. After all, we are talking about the Round of 16 in the European Championship, but I think it is worth it.