Partly luck, partly skill, Slovakia made it through the group stage of the European Football Championship. According to many, luck continues to favor the Slovakian footballers as they face England in their first knockout match of the tournament. It may sound strange, but meeting England in a qualifying phase match today is considered fortunate.
The English arrived at the tournament in Germany as one of the two biggest favorites, alongside France. Moreover, they are undoubtedly the most expensive squad in the championship. However, to the misfortune of England and the fortune of Slovakia, the English players seem to play as if they belong in the third tier of the Nations League.
It’s inexplicable how, with so many world-class players at Gareth Southgate‘s disposal, the team’s play remains so uninspiring and devoid of creativity. England dominates possession for most of the game but fails to produce enough quality shots. In fact, in three matches, England created fewer goal-scoring opportunities than Germany did against Scotland in just the first half. They also scored fewer goals than the Germans in the first 45 minutes.
Another surprising aspect is that despite the issues, Gareth Southgate has not made any changes to his lineup to address the situation. The only change in his squad was dropping Trent Alexander-Arnold in favor of Conor Gallagher as the second defensive midfielder against Serbia. Ultimately, even this decision by the head coach did not sit well with the fans. Statistics after the first two matches showed that Alexander-Arnold created the most scoring chances for his teammates. Perhaps due to this, the match against Serbia was the only one in which England failed to score.
According to the media, there are unlikely to be any changes in England’s lineup, so we can expect more of the same in the Round of 16 match against Slovakia. What does this mean? Most likely, England will play it safe and limit Slovakia’s options for goal-scoring opportunities in front of Jordan Pickford’s goal. At the same time, they will rely on moments of brilliance from their high-class players such as Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka, and Phil Foden. These moments could decide an Round of 16 match.
What are Slovakia’s chances in this match? They have already shown that they can defeat top teams, having overcome Belgium. Their victory in the first group match came with a 1-0 scoreline despite creating an xG of 0.58. On the other hand, the Belgians created goal-scoring opportunities equivalent to nearly 2 goals, not counting Romelu Lukaku’s two disallowed goals. Ultimately, this victory turned out to be a fortunate one, as the group standings were set up in such a way that if Romania and Slovakia ended their last match level, both teams would progress. Thus, with a victory over Belgium, achieved with a lot of luck, they reached the Round of 16.
Could the luck of the Slovakian footballers continue? According to bookmakers like bet365 and bWin, it’s highly unlikely. The odds for an England win in this match are 1.4, making them the second clearest favorite in the Round of 16. The odds for a draw in the match are 4.33, and Slovakia’s chances of victory are 9. In other words, England’s chances are 75 percent, the draw is around 20 percent, and Slovakia’s chances hover around 5 percent.
However, this should not mislead anyone into thinking this will be an easy match for the favorite. Everything so far suggests it could lean in Slovakia’s favor. Whether this will continue remains to be seen, but personally, I believe there is a safe bet in this match. It’s not on the victory of either team but rather that England will not concede a goal in regular time. The odds for this are not particularly high – bet365 offers 1.66. If you’re looking for a slightly higher odds, you could try England to win to nil, which offers odds of 1.9.
The odds for exact scores and for England to win 1-0 or 2-0 are 5.5 and 6, respectively. Combining these two odds gives a total bet of 2.75, which is also not a bad option for betting. Ultimately, however, we must consider that the Round of 16 of the European Football Championship offers many better betting options than a match where you have a favorite playing poorly and an outsider who has everything going smoothly so far. Personally, I would avoid this match.
