Spain versus Georgia is the fourth Round of 16 match at the European Football Championship. The clash between the highly performing team in the groups, Spain, and the Georgian team, considered underdogs in the tournament, will kick off on June 30th at 21:00 CET. The match will take place at the RheinEnergieStadion in Cologne, where all 43 thousand seats are guaranteed to be filled in anticipation of a goal fest.
Almost everyone is confident that there will be plenty of goals in this match, with many analysts predicting that all the goals will be in Georgia’s net. Spain’s team wasn’t initially among the favorites to win the title, but their performances in the group matches changed that. They were the only team to win all three of their matches, which is even more significant considering they competed in the so-called “Group of Death”. The Spanish players triumphed over Croatia 3-0, Italy 1-0, and Albania 1-0. Moreover, not only did they win all their matches in the tournament, but the Spanish team also did not concede a single goal, a feat unprecedented in Spanish football history.
What do the bookmakers offer?
There is no doubt among bookmakers about Spain’s victory. Furthermore, no other team has a victory odds as low as Spain’s. Currently, betting houses like bet356, SportingBet, and bWin offer odds around 1.20 to 1.22 for a Spain win. The odds for a draw in the match between Spain and Georgia go up to 6.75, while Georgia’s potential victory is set at odds of 15.50.
Additionally, the match between Spain and Georgia is one of the few Round of 16 matches in the European Championship where the chances of many goals are favored by bookmakers. The odds for Over 2.5 goals in the match are around 1.67, while the opposite bet for Under 2.5 goals can be found at 2.20.
It seems likely that there will be goals in this match, with the majority expected to be in favor of Spain.
What do the statistics show?
Bookmakers rarely err, and this is confirmed by the statistics in this match. No team in the Round of 16 has a higher expected goals (xG) conceded than Georgia. On average, in their three matches played, the Georgians have conceded 2.37 expected goals. Moreover, in each of their matches, they conceded more expected goals than their opponents. Now they face Spain, who in their three matches averaged 1.84 expected goals scored, and they managed to score a total of 5 goals.
Looking at the reverse statistics, in their last two matches, the Spanish defenders conceded only 0.31 expected goals per match. These data suggest that the Georgian attackers will face a tough challenge in this match.
The exception was the match between Spain and Croatia, where the Spaniards quickly took a 3-0 lead and then allowed the Croatian players to take the initiative. This led to a higher expected goals value for Croatia, reaching just over 2.
We should also consider Georgia’s attacking capabilities. Expected or not, the Georgians are one of the most offensive teams in the championship. On average, they manage an expected goals ratio of 1.63. Moreover, they are one of the few teams in the European Championship to have scored in every match so far. Whether they can score against the best defense in the championship remains to be seen.
What could be a successful bet for this match between Spain and Georgia?
Certainly, goals are what attract most bettors. Spain’s victory in regular time is highly likely, but the odds are too low. However, betting on goals seems promising. Betting on Over 3.5 goals at 2.75 appears justified. Even more likely is the bet on Over 2.5 goals in the match, given the odds of 1.66, which is not too low and seems reasonable.
The odds of 1.95 for Spain’s central forward Alvaro Morata to score at any time seem too low to be justified.
What I could suggest for this match is potentially live betting and monitoring the odds for the number of goals scored in regular time. If the match remains 0-0 until around the 30th minute, the odds for Over 2.5 goals in the match may rise above 2, which would make it quite attractive. Additionally, betting on Over 0.5 goals before halftime could also be quite appealing.
Another live betting option is to wait for a potential opening goal by Spain. Georgia has shown that they like to play attacking football in their matches and will not settle for an honorable defeat or wait for their chance towards the end of the match. If Spain scores and Georgia plays more boldly, we may see them exposed in defense, which could make even three goals by Spain a very plausible outcome in such a scenario.
